Quotes of the Day

European retailers are always nervous before Christmas, their most important season, but this year they're more jittery than usual. That's because it's so hard to read the economic tea leaves: in Continental Europe, growth looks to be picking up, but consumer spending remains sluggish in Germany and elsewhere. And in the U.K., consumption has slowed as the housing boom tails off. But the news isn't all bad. Investment bankers and fund managers, already highly paid, are expecting record year-end bonuses thanks to vibrant stock markets and a wave of mergers and acquisitions. Headhunters Russell Reynolds Associates say that fund managers' bonuses could be 40% higher than 2004. And a survey by New York City–based Options Group shows European bankers can expect a 20% increase in their bonuses on average.

That should keep retailers of luxury goods busy; the other big winners will be companies with well-functioning websites. A poll by online marketing firm TradeDoubler shows that 56% of Europeans say they'll be doing some of their Christmas shopping online this year — and that they'll spend 20% more on the Web than last year. The number who plan to buy half or more of their Christmas gifts online has doubled. But credit cards are out. Four out of five high street shoppers will use cash or debit cards to settle up, according to a survey of British consumers by accountants Deloitte. Britons are expected to pay out $540 each on presents, about 3% less than last year, but raise their food and drink spending. Retailers won't know how they've fared until the last minute: 1 in 4 survey participants say they'll shop until Christmas Eve. A separate poll by consultants KPMG last week showed that more than 1 in 4 Britons hasn't even started yet.

So it could be mayhem in the shops if they're after Roboraptors or the Star Wars Darth Vader Voice Changer Mask, top toys in the Deloitte survey. Apple's new iPod nano is a favorite, too. Sudoku books continue their spectacular run and, for a truly harmonious holiday season, a new boxed set of Mozart's collected works by Brilliant Classics is retailing for less than $118. The 170-CD set is the best seller on Amazon.com in France, where it's beating Madonna's latest album.

• PETER GUMBEL
• Economists have to shop around for real news on the European economy this Christmas